Shahed Simulation - US/Iran Conflict Model

Will Iranian missiles/shaheds exhaust US stockpiles, or will the US be able to destroy Iranian launch capacity? Created by NunoSempere of Sentinel and Samotsvety to find out. In Monte Carlo simulations using reasonable ranges, Iran wins about 10% of the time. Code available on GitHub.

Simulation

Scenario Preset

Days to Simulate

🇺🇸 US Parameters

Interceptor Stockpile i 2000

Interceptor Production (interceptors/day) i 8

Strike Capacity (strikes/day) i 500

Interception Success Rate i 0.90 % of fired missiles that hit target

Strike System Vulnerability i 0.8 Strike capacity lost per Iranian hit

🇮🇷 Iranian Parameters

Stockpile (drones) i 50000

Production (drones/day) i 300

Launch Capacity (launches/day) i 200

Production Vulnerability i 0.025 Production capacity lost per US strike

Launch Vulnerability i 0.12 Launch capacity lost per US strike

Strategy

Strikes on Production (%) 40

Strikes on Launch (%) 60

Adjust parameters and click "Run Simulation" to see results

Shahed Conflict Simulator

Simulation

🇺🇸 US Parameters

🇮🇷 Iranian Parameters

Strategy

World State

Initial State

🇮🇷 Stockpile

🇮🇷 Launch Capacity

🇺🇸 Interceptors

🇺🇸 Strike Capacity

Current State (Day 0)

🇮🇷 Stockpile

🇮🇷 Launch Capacity

🇺🇸 Interceptors

🇺🇸 Strike Capacity

🇮🇷 Iranian Capabilities Over Time

🇺🇸 US Capabilities Over Time

Daily Activity

Shahed Conflict Simulator

Simulation

🇺🇸 US Parameters

🇮🇷 Iranian Parameters

Strategy

World State

Initial State

🇮🇷 Stockpile

🇮🇷 Launch Capacity

🇺🇸 Interceptors

🇺🇸 Strike Capacity

Current State (Day 0)

🇮🇷 Stockpile

🇮🇷 Launch Capacity

🇺🇸 Interceptors

🇺🇸 Strike Capacity

🇮🇷 Iranian Capabilities Over Time

🇺🇸 US Capabilities Over Time

Daily Activity

Parameter Information