Shahed Conflict Simulator

US/Iranian Drone vs Interception Capacity Model

Will Iranian missiles/shaheds exhaust US stockpiles, or will the US be able to destroy Iranian launch capacity? Created by NunoSempere of Sentinel and Samotsvety to find out. In Monte Carlo simulations using reasonable ranges, Iran wins about 10% of the time. Code available on GitHub.

Simulation

🇺🇸 US Parameters

% of fired missiles that hit target
Strike capacity lost per Iranian hit

🇮🇷 Iranian Parameters

Production capacity lost per US strike
Launch capacity lost per US strike

Strategy

Adjust parameters and click "Run Simulation" to see results

World State

Initial State

🇮🇷 Stockpile
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🇮🇷 Launch Capacity
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🇺🇸 Interceptors
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🇺🇸 Strike Capacity
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Current State (Day 0)

🇮🇷 Stockpile
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🇮🇷 Launch Capacity
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🇺🇸 Interceptors
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🇺🇸 Strike Capacity
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🇮🇷 Iranian Capabilities Over Time

🇺🇸 US Capabilities Over Time

Daily Activity